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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, including 3 relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market as well. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with a number of bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really respected player."
Despite the fact that reputable money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with several bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come .
"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The total has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen significant buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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